"Which Model to Use?" Guide

1. What type of problem are you solving?

Complex Problem Solving

• First Principles: Break it down to fundamentals Use
• Inversion: Think about what to avoid Use
• Occam's Razor: Prefer simpler explanations Use

Making a Decision

• Second-Order Thinking: Consider long-term consequences Use
• Bayesian Thinking: Update with new evidence Use
• Circle of Competence: Know your limits Use

Strategy & Competition

• SWOT Analysis: Assess your situation Use
• Porter's Five Forces: Analyze industry Use
• Game Theory: Model interactions Use

Understanding Systems

• Feedback Loops: Map cause and effect Use
• Leverage Points: Find where to intervene Use
• Tipping Points: Watch for critical thresholds Use